Economic Insight


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Our Economic Insight series is a global knowledge series which includes focused analysis on a given country (country report), or sector (supply chain analysis), as well as cross-country and cross-sector comparisons such as our interactive country risk map.



United States: Trying to feel the export pulse​​​​

October 2015

​The context: A risk of domesticalization for U.S. companies Exports fell markedly (-3% in the first half of the year) on the back of a stronger dollar and a slowdown in global demand. American exporters can feel the heat; World trade growth has contracted by -14% in value in the first half of the year, as a result of currency carnage in emerging markets and lower revenues from trading commodities. Euler Hermes expects trade to contract by -2.0% in value this year and to moderately recover next year (+2.6%).


Germany and the Netherlands: Rivals on the football field, partners in the export game?

September 2015

A recent survey among Dutch and German exporters conducted by DNHK and Euler Hermes shows that one out of two companies still finds it difficult to increase turnover and margins (See Chart 1). Reasons invoked are similar for both​ countries: low consumer demand and increasing deflationary pressures due to fiercer competition. One in four Dutch companies gives declining sales prices as the main reason for pressure on turnover, compared with 1 out of 5 German companies.


Iran: Back in the game?

September 2015

If the agreement reached on July 14 between Iran and the P5+1 is fully ratified, some sanctions imposed on Iran by the U.S., the European Union and the UN will be removed in 2016. In return, Iran will decelerate its nuclear programme.​


China: Great Wall, Great Mall, Great Fall? Not really…

September 2015

We revised down our growth forecast for China this year to +6.8%
in 2015 and +6.5% in 2016 with a possible deviation of +/-0.2pps each year. This revision reflects lower growth in exports and investment, a less favorable financing mix and prevailing deflationary pressures...


Fed quake: Who will bear the BruNTS ?

August 2015

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates and tighten its monetary policy by the end of 2015. Compared to previous tightening cycles, communication has been more transparent for anticipations to be better managed. This telegraphed tightening cycle will be gradual.


Cuba : Viva la (economic) Revolution

August 2015


Three game changers for Cuba : (i) the progressive easing of the economic restrictions by the U.S.; (ii) a new Cuban law promoting foreign investments and (iii) the launch of the "Cuba Porfolio of Opportunities for Foreign Investment", worth USD15bn across 246 projects.