Economic Outlook

 

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This monthly publication provides our clients with our latest macroeconomic and insolvency forecasts by country and sector and addresses risks and opportunities in emerging trends such global trade, reindustrialization and the green economy.

 

Automarket - a live wire

Special Report

Things are going amazingly (too) fast in today’s world of disruption. The collaborative consumer is king. The Sharing or On-Demand economy and digital transformation – simply the tip of the iceberg – are just a few of the developments that are knocking traditional industries off course. At a time when the NATU (Netflix, Airbnb, Tesla and Uber) are overtaking the GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple), with regulators, tax specialists and policy-makers not knowing which way to turn and emerging El Dorados seen reaping the advantages of backwardness (rejecting a conventional form of industrial revolution and skipping straight to the latest technological breakthrough), while the automotive sector is certainly on the road to recovery, it could be in for a rough ride.


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RIDING INTO RISKS OR RECOVERY ?

Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook

Doing business is like riding a bicycle: to keep your balance you must keep moving; and it has been quite a mud run lately! Companies have for a long time realized that they have to fight relentlessly to avoid getting bogged down by political turbulence, liquidity freeze and bewildering confidence headwinds.

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Focus on the Signal and Ignore the Noise

Macroeconomic Country Risk and Global Sector Outlook

We are almost there! After six years of intense depression, it seems that a weaker euro, lower oil prices and cheap financing costs are doing the trick - the largest economy in the world, Europe, is finally on the mend. It did not come at zero cost for companies and households, but we should rejoice of finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. In the meantime, the world has changed dramatically.


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Special Report

Like a cyclist against the wind, global trade has been fighting an uphill battle. Yes, the outlook does look better overall and trade-gnation sounds like old news, but competition is fierce. Trade is like a marathon; there are front runners and laggards, hungry competitors, those who burn out and those who fade away. Will eager nations catch up? Will outsiders once again change the rules of the game?

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OVERVIEW 2015 NOT SUCH A GRIMM TALE BUT NO FABLED HAPPY ENDING

Special Report

As the nights become increasingly dark, at least in the northern hemisphere, those of us with children may pass the time telling fables and short-stories by the fireplace – heaters work too. Euler Hermes’ seven fairy tales on the 2015 economic outlook is a Tiger Mom’s best companion to start (albeit very early) the development of her child’s economic skills. It all starts with: Once upon a time in a global economic mess, and ends with and the Central Banker lived happily ever after.


  
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INTERNATIONAL DEBT COLLECTION: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

International debt collection is never the same. Its complexity depends on many factors including one’s relationship with its client. Even though there is a country-specific legal backdrop for collecting your dues (see summaries of Euler Hermes’ country collection profiles that appear in the margins of this report), collection can be summarized in three steps. 
  
 

Economic Talk - video 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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